Capital Market Outlook
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What to Watch in the Year Ahead
A continued bull market may not be a guarantee in the coming year. Global growth challenges, trade tensions, inflation, a surging federal deficit and U.S. policy uncertainty are among the potential headwinds we could see in 2025.
December 16, 2024
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Addressing Investor Apprehensions
With investors hesitant to deploy excess dry powder amid concerns about changing markets, portfolio construction must reckon with rising geopolitical risks and attendant policy preferences. Meanwhile, U.S. bond markets continue to look solid
December 9, 2024
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3 Key Takeaways from Q3 Earnings Season
Corporate profits, artificial intelligence and U.S. consumer confidence stood out in the Q3 earnings season. Heading into 2025, policy changes reinforce our preference for U.S. equities and housing could prove to be a bright spot.
December 2, 2024
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On Policy Changes, the Business Cycle and the Markets
Cautious optimism should prevail for peak retail sales season and the macro growth trajectory in 2025. However, defense, China, deficits and money markets will bear watching as the investment landscape evolves in the year ahead.
November 25, 2024
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Headwinds in High Yield, China and Oil
Rich valuations skew the risk-reward equation to the downside for high-yield spreads. Meanwhile, the hukou system remains a drag on Chinese consumption and growth — and weaker Chinese demand plus a growing supply outlook could weigh on oil prices.
November 18, 2024
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The Election Is Over. Now What?
The election results could amplify an already-strong fiscal and monetary policy impulse, but it's not all clear sailing for the markets. Whatever the macro shifts look like, however, the Artificial Intelligence arms race is shaping up to be expansive and expensive.
November 12, 2024
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The Buckle-Your-Seatbelt Moment Has Arrived
Macro evidence doesn't fit a late-cycle pattern, offering yet another puzzle for investors already assessing earnings, the election and potential Fed moves. Also, early movements suggest private sector support for a nuclear power renaissance.
November 4, 2024
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When Bulls Get More Bullish
Despite a spike in 10-year Treasury yields and renewed risks of inflation, encouraging economic factors and positive investor sentiment have prevailed. Taking the long view, we believe the U.S. economy remains the most dynamic and resilient in the world.
October 28, 2024
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Navigating Near-term Uncertainty
As the year draws to a close, markets face economic and geopolitical risks in the context of a contentious U.S. presidential election. Still, a variety of reasons suggest Value-oriented Equities may still be a sweet spot.
October 21, 2024
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Data Reinforce The Case For Only Gradual Fed Easing
Strong economic factors support strength in Equities, reinforcing our view that the September rate cuts are likely more about fine-tuning policy than battling a recession. Also, how generative AI may support a positive backdrop for the Utilities sector.
October 15, 2024
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Macroeconomics & Geopolitics
A robust economy, dominant dollar and reflationary fiscal policy reinforce our preference for U.S. assets over international choices as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain pressures grow. Also, what Fed policy could mean for small-caps.
October 7, 2024
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Investors Need a More Nuanced View of the U.S. Consumer
This week we explain why investors need a more nuanced view of the U.S. Consumer given they are the pulse of the U.S. economy – and in our view, remains solid. We also review Emerging Markets and Europe amid the new fed easing cycle.
September 30, 2024