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Capital Market Outlook
Your resource for the latest thinking from our experts on the markets and economy in the coming year and beyond
Macro In Brief
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Current economic data is positive for risk assets, for now, but business cycle risks are building. Plus the pressure’s on emerging market central banks, and just as China’s crackdown of its technology sector broadened out, many U.S. Mega-cap tech names hovered near highs. |
Too Much of a Good Thing
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Higher inflation will likely remain persistent rather than transitory. The pandemic disruption to supply chains has served as a flashpoint in evaluating vulnerabilities and fragilities across a number of industries. And we believe we are on the road to a more decarbonized future. |
Stronger for Longer
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The cyclical and Value beneficiaries of currently strong economic growth tend to reassert their leadership until monetary policy actually turns restrictive. Plus we favor a more active approach to emerging markets, and small caps are off to a strong start in 2021, and in our view, momentum could continue. |
Oil-Price Forecasts Run the Gamut
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Uncertainty, long-term supply restraints, and unprecedented monetary liquidity are adding further upside bias to oil prices. Plus The Art of Investing in China: “Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones," and assessing climate risks relies on good disclosure. |
Macro Moderations and Market Transitions
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The market's drivers are likely to transition toward business spending, productivity and shifting consumer spending toward services. Plus ten reasons to stay long the United States, and seasonality suggests the S&P 500 benchmark just entered its strongest month of the year—July. |
The Horse is Out of the Barn
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The real question for investors is how much their money will be worth after this “transitory" inflation is over. Also, a look at which categories are likely to appreciate next, and how stocks may be supported by corporate earnings. |
Elevated Narrow Range for Margins Likely Through 2022
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Because of deeply negative current real interest rates, profit margins are unlikely to decline much from elevated current levels before 2023, in our view. Also: a mid-year glimpse at global equities, and research and development as a key driver of global growth and competitiveness. |
Nuclear Energy: The Ultimate Green Energy Play
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To reach net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050, nuclear energy is likely to play a prominent role. Still Frosty: U.S.-China Relations and the Implications for U.S. Investors. The Federal Reserve's wind-down of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit facility is not an issue for markets, in our opinion. |
Keep on Keeping On Until Pent-up Demand Is Gone
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Coincident and leading indicators of U.S. business investment spending remain positive heading into the back half of the year, pent-up demand will quickly evaporate at this pace of growth. The global baby bust and market implications. European yields are turning positive. |
Inflation Fears Create Ambiguous Market Signals
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Inflation fears create ambiguous market signals. Key global developments to watch and potential catalysts that might drive markets going forward. What Federal Reserve tapering could mean for equity markets. |
Arming Portfolios for the Inflation Rotation
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Ultra-aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to re-anchor inflation expectations at a higher level have started to show results. Arming portfolios for the inflation rotation. “Cashing in" on the global consumer recovery. |
What's Next for the Manufacturing Cycle?
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The manufacturing index suggests cyclical momentum is as strong as we have seen in the post-war period. A Two-Tiered Trend in Emerging Markets. Reality Check: Some Inconvenient Truths about the Green Revolution. |
Inflation in the Material World
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Structural deflation in the Technology sector has lulled many investors into complacency about the outlook for inflation. Concerns over the next leg for equity markets have become more acute. Pandemic startup surge: The spike in applications to start new businesses. |
Fed Not Ready To Spoil the Party
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The Federal Reserve is not ready to spoil the party. A robust U.S. economy is not only considered a seismic tailwind for U.S. corporate earnings but also represents a powerful blast to global earnings. The share of zombies may be in remission amidst a favorable macro backdrop. |
Housing on Fire
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We expect the strong housing expansion to continue. Don't forget about the three bears. The American Jobs Plan lays out a sweeping set of priorities with the aim of creating jobs by addressing infrastructure underinvestment, concerns from climate change, and demographic and development challenges. |
Inflation Complacency
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Inflation complacency: Early warning signs are pointing to big upside inflation surprises ahead. The U.S. is leading the global economic recovery and entering into a growth revival. The year-over-year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the coming months are likely to be elevated. |
Reflation Tailwinds Also Give Boost To Oil Prices
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A high correlation with inflation favors energy stocks as potential defense against the declining value of money. The geopolitics of U.S.-China relations remain key to market expectations and returns. American Exceptionalism, with a Caveat. |
The Market Balance Sheet
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In our view a clear-eyed understanding of the bull and the bear cases may aid key portfolio decisions. After the Suez Saga: Implications for a Globalized Economic System. What Divergent Transatlantic Growth Means for U.S. Investors. |
Important Disclosures
All data, projections and opinions are as of the date of the report and subject to change.
The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America") and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S" or “Merrill"), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.
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Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
All recommendations must be considered in the context of an individual investor’s goals, time horizon, liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Not all recommendations will be in the best interest of all investors.
Investments have varying degrees of risk. Some of the risks involved with equity securities include the possibility that the value of the stocks may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the U.S. or abroad. Bonds are subject to interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Treasury bills are less volatile than longer-term fixed income securities and are guaranteed as to timely payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government. Investments in foreign securities (including ADRs) involve special risks, including foreign currency risk and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Investments in a certain industry or sector may pose additional risk due to lack of diversification and sector concentration.
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