Capital Market Outlook

Unfazed by Uncertainty

Despite elevated uncertainty, the U.S. economy has proven resilient and equities have rebounded to new highs, with small-caps leading the charge.

 

April 27, 2026

Early Spring Brings Signs of Potential Growth

We see positive signs in accelerating technological progress, easing Middle East escalation concerns and U.S. deficits that remain near historical norms — and supported by a resilient economy.

 

April 20, 2026

Earnings Season Amid a Fragile Truce

We believe resilient earnings, supportive consumer fundamentals and a strong earnings outlook are outweighing the market's geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, we see signs the Federal Reserve could resume policy easing later in the year.

 

April 13, 2026

Focus on Long-Term Trends Amid Short-Term Disruptions

When you dig into the details, we believe the long-term effects of artificial intelligence, foreign demand for U.S. assets and short-term U.S. demographic changes generally look positive.

 

April 6, 2026

Taking the Long View

The tariff turmoil of a year ago gave way to a swift market recovery rather than lasting damage. With war-driven volatility in the headlines, we still think history favors a long-term recovery-focused view.

 

March 30, 2026

Finding Opportunities amid Uncertainty

Geopolitical uncertainty and artificial intelligence disruption underscore the value of diversification. Meanwhile, China's equity market remains a haven of relative stability.

 

March 23, 2026

Monitoring Uncertainty

A prolonged geopolitical conflict could come with downside risks to global growth and earnings, though we continue to believe economic resilience and diversification should help investors navigate near-term uncertainty.

 

March 16, 2025

Taking Stock of the Headlines and the Fundamentals

Despite ongoing policy and geopolitical headwinds, we continue to see a U.S. economy supported by broader policy and economic trends, as well as a potential manufacturing upcycle.

 

March 9, 2026

Underlying Growth and Dynamic Labor Productivity

We see strong fundamentals and long-term trends, even amid uncertainty and wavering consumer sentiment — in particular, our outlook for U.S. consumer spending and China's leading tech firms remains constructive.

 

March 2, 2026

The Importance of Diversification

Volatility in early 2026 has favored non-U.S. markets, but resilient market breadth, sector rotation and Artificial Intelligence are supporting a broader uptrend — and underscoring the importance of diversification.

 

February 23, 2026

Manufacturing and the U.S. Consumer Drive Growth

Improving manufacturing trends could help broaden earnings growth as the U.S. consumer remains a dominant driver of the global economy. Meanwhile, interest costs, tax cuts and pre-election spending pressures could lead to a sizable U.S. deficit.

 

February 17, 2026

More Rotation than Retreat

Headline indexes are moving, but we believe it's important to track what's going on beneath the surface: The U.S. appears poised for a major foreign-investment-driven industrial renaissance and a sector rotation appears to be maintaining the uptrend.

 

February 9, 2026

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