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Capital Market Outlook
Your resource for the latest thinking from our experts on the markets and economy in the coming year and beyond
Are the Markets Too Complacent About Mounting Geopolitical Risks?
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The U.S. economy continues to prove more resilient than expected, helping to drive a rotation into more cyclical stocks; it's worth being mindful of geopolitical tension points, and we believe the next generation of U.S. infrastructure build-out will also focus on important information communications technology. |
Market Volatility: The Momentum Swing Across the Plains
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Government functioning will evolve in the years ahead and require a shift in investor mindset, the market rebound has been uneven across sectors and industries, and greater supply will be needed to meet the growing demand for faster, more accurate coronavirus testing but that will take time. |
What prompted the Fed to review its strategy and tools?
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What does it mean that the Federal Reserve is doubling down on their 2% inflation target, we've pointed to key exhibits that speak volumes about markets and presidential elections, and second-quarter gross domestic product results for most major countries confirm an expected trend. |
The Message From The Shortest Bear Market Ever
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The U.S. economy may be at a secular turning point, with stronger growth and higher inflation likely; the importance of geographic revenue exposures, currency effects and sector exposures; and as the economy emerges from recession, unlocking the economic power of gender parity is more critical than ever. |
Fed Reflation Efforts More Likely To Succeed This Time Around
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Cyclical stocks that benefit from higher inflation and stronger growth have begun to outperform, demand for extended reality devices appears to be well-placed to grow, and there remains potential support for higher equity values over the next 12 to 18 months, in our view. |
Europe Poised to Catch Up
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Europe has lagged but now appears to be in position to catch up, social distancing-cum-limited human contact as the new normal could mean increased demand for and acceleration of the adoption of robots and automation, and downward pressure on the greenback could provide tailwinds for corporate earnings. |
V for Housing
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Housing activity and prices are currently picking up, both bulls and bears seem to have enough ammunition to debate the make-or-break case for the economy, corporate earnings and valuation, and flows into sustainable and impact investing funds in 2019 were up fourfold on the previous year. |
Inflation Unlikely to Reach 2% Fed Target Over the Next Two Years
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Inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% Fed target over the next two years, we outline some key sectors and industries most sensitive to the election agenda, and there's a renewed appreciation for space in the industrial real estate market. |
Investing In A Post-Pandemic Synchronized Global Expansion
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New patterns emerging in the asset markets reflect a major change in the world economic outlook, health and policy developments highlight potential market catalysts for the second half of the year, and we explore the Biden tax proposal and what it may mean for investors and tax planning. |
Is Economic Activity Flatlining?
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Is economic activity flatlining, the pandemic has greatly accelerated the fusion of science and technology, and we expect the pace of decline to trough in the second quarter. |
Market Rewarding Reflation Beneficiaries
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The market is rewarding reflation beneficiaries, we expect electricity generated from hydrogen fuel cells to remain a fast-growing segment of the alternative energy mix, and we believe Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities' outperformance is likely over the next year if our positive economic outlook proves correct. |
Something Old and Something New
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Every recession is similar to and different from previous downturns, we see several factors emerging as foundation for a long-term advance for U.S. equities, and as a long-term bullish indicator, foreign demand for U.S. securities remains robust and supportive across multiple asset classes. |
What a Difference 100 Days Can Make For The Markets and Investors
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Major crises often lead to fundamental shifts in economic and social behavior, and we feel this time will be no different; there is potential for industrial stock performance to continue to improve, and the dollar may finally turn from a headwind for crude oil prices into a tailwind, in our view. |
In Claims We Trust
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Labor market data suggest the recession is already over, we see equities remaining in a higher trading channel owing to support by the A.B.Cs, and long-term exposure in many cutting-edge technologies and positions in their respective countries and companies seem to be leading the way. |
Conditions In Place For A Potentially Strong Global Expansion
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Global risk assets had been rallying hard, especially those more correlated with solid economic expansions; we expect to see a renewed focus on R&D by governments and businesses; and small caps are likely to be supported in the near term but still face headwinds. |
Moving Toward “Escape Velocity”
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Signs of a dramatic shift in the central banks' reflation efforts should raise the odds that inflation will finally increase to their targets, dynamics investors could have missed during pandemic headlines, and the Equity Risk Premium proves useful as it takes into account the level of interest rates. |
Going from “Wait and Watch” Stage to a “Path Forward” Stage
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This bear market may ultimately lead to a “Path Forward," the potential for new tensions to interrupt China's growth rebound and market recovery could cause emerging markets to lag further, and bottoming in the energy sector is considered a bright spot for markets. |
A Wake-Up Call
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Numerous factors suggest rising global public health risks, including pandemics; COVID-19's influence on the upcoming U.S. election and the U.S. fiscal policy programs enacted in response to the current pandemic are likely to limit the extent and duration of the current recession. |
Stopping Deflation
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This abundant liquidity combined with aggressive government spending could help support risk assets and the potential for a strong economic recovery; post the pandemic: debt, deglobalization, digitalization, demographics; higher muni yields may provide opportunities for investors. |
Macro Weakness vs. Market Rebound: Observations from Three Recent Crises
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Similarities with previous episodes suggest that investors should continue to look through the macro weakness; the ongoing pandemic will likely bring fundamental shifts in the global economy and behavioral changes among consumers and corporates; the new economy charges ahead. |
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All data, projections and opinions are as of the date of the report and subject to change.
The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America") and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S" or “Merrill"), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.
Bank of America, Merrill, their affiliates, and advisors do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Clients should consult their legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
All recommendations must be considered in the context of an individual investor’s goals, time horizon, liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Not all recommendations will be in the best interest of all investors.
Investments have varying degrees of risk. Some of the risks involved with equity securities include the possibility that the value of the stocks may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the U.S. or abroad. Bonds are subject to interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Treasury bills are less volatile than longer-term fixed income securities and are guaranteed as to timely payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government. Investments in foreign securities (including ADRs) involve special risks, including foreign currency risk and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Investments in a certain industry or sector may pose additional risk due to lack of diversification and sector concentration.
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