Capital Market Outlook

Rich valuations skew the risk-reward equation to the downside for high-yield spreads. Meanwhile, the hukou system remains a drag on Chinese consumption and growth — and weaker Chinese demand plus a growing supply outlook could weigh on oil prices.

November 18, 2024

The election results could amplify an already-strong fiscal and monetary policy impulse, but it's not all clear sailing for the markets. Whatever the macro shifts look like, however, the Artificial Intelligence arms race is shaping up to be expansive and expensive.

November 12, 2024

Macro evidence doesn't fit a late-cycle pattern, offering yet another puzzle for investors already assessing earnings, the election and potential Fed moves. Also, early movements suggest private sector support for a nuclear power renaissance.

November 4, 2024

Despite a spike in 10-year Treasury yields and renewed risks of inflation, encouraging economic factors and positive investor sentiment have prevailed. Taking the long view, we believe the U.S. economy remains the most dynamic and resilient in the world.

October 28, 2024

As the year draws to a close, markets face economic and geopolitical risks in the context of a contentious U.S. presidential election. Still, a variety of reasons suggest Value-oriented Equities may still be a sweet spot.

October 21, 2024

Strong economic factors support strength in Equities, reinforcing our view that the September rate cuts are likely more about fine-tuning policy than battling a recession. Also, how generative AI may support a positive backdrop for the Utilities sector.

October 15, 2024

A robust economy, dominant dollar and reflationary fiscal policy reinforce our preference for U.S. assets over international choices as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain pressures grow. Also, what Fed policy could mean for small-caps.

October 7, 2024

This week we explain why investors need a more nuanced view of the U.S. Consumer given they are the pulse of the U.S. economy – and in our view, remains solid. We also review Emerging Markets and Europe amid the new fed easing cycle.

September 30, 2024

We believe the economy and markets give little support for the Fed's belief that policy is restrictive. While investors continue to think twice when it comes to China, foreign investors have shown a remarkable penchant to “Buy America" over this century.

September 23, 2024

The election will have implications for fixed income markets, but we believe it would take much weaker economic growth to spur a recession. This plus the latest on the possible government shut down.

September 16, 2024

August taught us, market turbulence will likely come up against tailwinds, but what investors still don't get about the U.S. Economy is that as markets chop and churn through volatility our economy remains dynamic and diverse. Mixed economic data reflect the transition to the new economy with stronger than expected consumer spending, and other positive trends.

September 9, 2024

This week we explore how rate cut expectations are broadening the equity market rally. We also discuss our view of conditions as a “buffalo market" and send a reminder “don't overlook earnings", since a strong earnings backdrop helps to reinforce our equity overweight.

September 3, 2024