Capital Market Outlook

What Could Spook This Market?

Fundamentals appear poised to boost manufacturing activity and economic growth, but concerns about the dollar, elevated trade tension, a government shutdown and the durability of Artificial Intelligence spending could weigh on investors' minds.

 

October 20, 2025

Earnings, China and the Long-running Bull

There's a lot in the forecast for investors to digest. As the bull market continues to advance, China is developing its next five-year plan and Q3 earnings season is about to get underway.

 

October 14, 2025

What to Make of Rate Cuts and a Shutdown

Rates are lower, but economic growth seems poised to stay. The government shut down, but U.S. consumers and corporations remain open for business. Here's where we think it all nets out.

 

October 6, 2025

Finding the Signals in the Noise

Amid the noise of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy, we see potential benefit in strategic sectors and reason for optimism in the continued strength of U.S. consumer spending.

 

September 29, 2025

The Fallout from Falling Rates

Cutting rates with inflation still above target suggests the Federal Reserve may be emphasizing the employment side of its mandate at the moment. Meanwhile, we believe small-caps and the aerospace and defense sectors appear poised for continued strength.

 

September 22, 2025

Taking the Long View

We believe strong economic fundamentals and potential tailwinds for artificial intelligence could create both short-term and long-term benefits for investors.

 

September 15, 2025

A Different Lens for a Dynamic Environment

With structural changes and a variety of factors affecting the economy and trade, we're taking a fresh look at historical valuation metrics and economic relationships between the U.S. and its Asian trading partners.

 

September 8, 2025

Taking Stock of Market Dynamics

Against a backdrop of strong fundamentals and a positive earnings outlook, automation could help relieve tight labor supply in some industries. Meanwhile, China's trade dominance could pose issues for other Emerging Markets.

 

September 2, 2025

Keeping the Fundamentals in Sight

We continue to be optimistic about market fundamentals amid signs that U.S. markets remain well-positioned compared to much of the world and continued solidity in municipal credit markets.

 

August 25, 2025

Navigating Shifting Currents

Staying on course means understanding what's changing — and what's not — amid the rise of artificial intelligence, shifts in global trade and mounting pressure to cut interest rates.

 

August 18, 2025

Mapping the Next Phase of Uncertainty

With uncertainty about tariffs fading, the Federal Reserve looks like the next target for shifting macroeconomic policy. Meanwhile, the housing market is showing signs of potential improvement.

 

August 11, 2025

Trends to Watch

Keeping government debt, international markets and equity sticker shock in perspective could help investors find potential opportunities beyond the headlines dominating the current economic environment.

 

August 4, 2025

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