Market Updates

Your resource for the latest thinking from our experts on the markets and economy in the coming year and beyond


May 18, 2020

A Wake-Up Call

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Numerous factors suggest rising global public health risks, including pandemics; COVID-19's influence on the upcoming U.S. election and the U.S. fiscal policy programs enacted in response to the current pandemic are likely to limit the extent and duration of the current recession.

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May 11, 2020

Stopping Deflation

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This abundant liquidity combined with aggressive government spending could help support risk assets and the potential for a strong economic recovery; post the pandemic: debt, deglobalization, digitalization, demographics; higher muni yields may provide opportunities for investors.

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May 4, 2020

Macro Weakness vs. Market Rebound: Observations from Three Recent Crises

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Similarities with previous episodes suggest that investors should continue to look through the macro weakness; the ongoing pandemic will likely bring fundamental shifts in the global economy and behavioral changes among consumers and corporates; the new economy charges ahead.

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April 27, 2020

Penny Wise and Pound Foolish

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The pandemic likely marks the culmination of the hyper-globalization trend; for insight we look to the following: flattening of the curve, reopening of the economy, earnings clarity and energy price stability; surging demand for coins and gold bars has caused a scramble for physical gold.

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April 20, 2020

Labor Market Dynamics in a Coronavirus World

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Fiscal and monetary policy are fully engaged in helping to support household incomes and jobs, the wealthiest states look to be those with vibrant and dynamic life science capabilities and infrastructure, and we highlight recent developments around case monitoring, testing and drug development.

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April 13, 2020

What’s Different This Time

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Market watchers are debating whether the coronavirus crisis will cause an extended recession or even a depression or whether it will be a sharp but short recession; valuation levels are attractive for investors with a longer time horizon; U.S. banks have suspended share repurchases.

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April 6, 2020

Consumer Credit Risks of the Coronavirus

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More fiscal stimulus support would be needed in the case of a more protracted recession, the coronavirus outbreak reinforces our portfolio bias toward U.S. equities, and a continuation of the current sell-off toward a 1930s-style depression seems highly unlikely.

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March 30, 2020

Strong Fundamentals Create Basis for Potential Strong Recovery

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Strong fundamentals create a basis for a potential strong recovery, the Federal Reserve has been up to the task, and all eyes are on King Dollar.

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March 23, 2020

Shock and Oil

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Consolidation and persistent volatility in the energy space should be expected; a look at previous bear markets; the attitude of U.S. consumers has darkened considerably.

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March 16, 2020

Market Volatility Update

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We believe we’re in a two-stage bottoming in equities; a “fiscal bazooka” is in early stages; investors shouldn’t lose sight of potential buying opportunities; housing can be an indicator.

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March 9, 2020

Damages, Responses and the Other Side

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We expect key catalysts for equity positioning will be manufacturing/export data, interest rates, policy responses and the dollar; downside risks have risen with the spread of Covid-19 outside China, and supply chains and manufacturing are disrupted, but there is also demand disruption.

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March 2, 2020

The Market Selloff in Perspective

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We offer our perspective on last week’s market selloff that comes amid fallout from Covid-19 virus outbreak, a recent improving trend for productivity, an apparently deteriorating global backdrop for U.S. foreign earnings and elevated volatility levels of measured risk.

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February 24, 2020

Can the U.S. avoid “Japanification”?

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We see a clear sign that inflation pressures are headed lower; owing to the Coronavirus, global policy makers have adopted a double-barreled response; given Europe’s tepid risk-taking culture and underdeveloped venture capital markets, the EU continues to lag the U.S. and Asia.

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February 18, 2020

Deflationary effects from the Coronavirus put the Fed back in play

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Positive incoming economic data so far this year have confirmed our belief that the path of least resistance for the U.S. economy would be up after the Fed cut interest rates and the effect of other central banks' rate cuts started to be felt around the world. The global economic surprise diffusion index has turned sharply positive, reflecting increasingly more upside surprises than downside surprises on the economic front worldwide in recent weeks..

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February 11, 2020

Stocks Are Not Partying Like the Late 1990s

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Global equities ripped higher last year, powered by the S&P 500, which marked its strongest gain since 2013. Many investors have questioned whether this market is similar to that of the late 1990s, but there are some key differences.

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